The most fundamental question is scientific: Is the observed warming of the past 30 years due to natural causes or are human activities
a main or even a contributing factor?
At first glance, it is quite plausible that humans could be responsible for warming the climate. After all, the burning of fossil fuels
to generate energy releases large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The CO2 level has been increasing steadily since the beginning of the industrial
revolution and is now 35 percent higher than it was 200 years ago. Also, we know from direct measurements that CO2 is a "greenhouse gas" which strongly absorbs infrared
(heat) radiation. So the idea that burning fossil fuels causes an enhanced "greenhouse effect" needs to be taken seriously.
But in seeking to understand recent warming, we also have to consider the natural factors that have regularly warmed the climate prior
to the industrial revolution and, indeed, prior to any human presence on the earth. After all, the geological record shows a persistent 1,500-year cycle of warming and
cooling extending back at least one million years.
In identifying the burning of fossil fuels as the chief cause of warming today, many politicians and environmental activists simply
appeal to a so-called "scientific consensus." There are two things wrong with this. First, there is no such consensus: An increasing number of climate scientists are
raising serious questions about the political rush to judgment on this issue. For example, the widely touted "consensus" of 2,500 scientists on the United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an illusion: Most of the panelists have no scientific qualifications, and many of the others object to some part of
the IPCC's report. The Associated Press reported recently that only 52 climate scientists contributed to the report's "Summary for Policymakers."
Likewise, only about a dozen members of the governing board voted on the "consensus statement" on climate change by the American
Meteorological Society (AMS). Rank and file AMS scientists never had a say, which is why so many of them are now openly rebelling. Estimates of skepticism within the
AMS regarding man-made global warming are well over 50 percent.
The second reason not to rely on a "scientific consensus" in these matters is that this is not how science works. After all, scientific
advances customarily come from a minority of scientists who challenge the majority view – or even just a single person (think of Galileo or Einstein). Science
proceeds by the scientific method and draws conclusions based on evidence, not on a show of hands.
But aren't glaciers melting? Isn't sea ice shrinking? Yes, but that's not proof for human-caused warming. Any kind of warming, whether
natural or human-caused, will melt ice. To assert that melting glaciers prove human causation is just bad logic.
What about the fact that carbon dioxide levels are increasing at the same time temperatures are rising? That's an interesting
correlation; but as every scientist knows, correlation is not causation. During much of the last century the climate was cooling while CO2 levels were rising.
And we should note that the climate has not warmed in the past eight years, even though greenhouse gas levels have increased rapidly.
What about the fact – as cited by, among others, those who produced the IPCC report – that every major greenhouse computer
model (there are two dozen or so) shows a large temperature increase due to human burning of fossil fuels? Fortunately, there is a scientific way of testing these models
to see whether current warming is due to a man-made greenhouse effect. It involves comparing the actual or observed pattern of warming with the warming pattern
predicted by or calculated from the models. Essentially, we try to see if the "fingerprints" match – "fingerprints" meaning the rates of warming at different
latitudes and altitudes.
For instance, theoretically, greenhouse warming in the tropics should register at increasingly high rates as one moves from the surface
of the earth up into the atmosphere, peaking at about six miles above the earth's surface. At that point, the level should be greater than at the surface by about a
factor of three and quite pronounced, according to all the computer models. In reality, however, there is no increase at all. In fact, the data from balloon-borne
radiosondes show the very opposite: a slight decrease in warming over the equator.
The fact that the observed and predicted patterns of warming don't match indicates that the man-made greenhouse contribution to current
temperature change is insignificant. This fact emerges from data and graphs collected in the Climate Change Science Program Report 1.1, published by the federal
government in April 2006 (see www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm. It is remarkable and puzzling that few have noticed this disparity between observed and predicted patterns of warming and drawn the obvious scientific conclusion).
What explains why greenhouse computer models predict temperature trends that are so much larger than those observed? The answer lies in
the proper evaluation of feedback within the models. Remember that in addition to carbon dioxide, the real atmosphere contains water vapor, the most powerful greenhouse
gas. Every one of the climate models calculates a significant positive feedback from water vapor – i.e., a feedback that amplifies the warming effect of the CO2
increase by an average factor of two or three. But it is quite possible that the water vapor feedback is negative rather than positive and thereby reduces the
effect of increased CO2.
There are several ways this might occur. For example, when increased CO2 produces a warming of the ocean, a higher rate of evaporation
might lead to more humidity and cloudiness (provided the atmosphere contains a sufficient number of cloud condensation nuclei). These low clouds reflect incoming solar
radiation back into space and thereby cool the earth. Climate researchers have discovered other possible feedbacks and are busy evaluating which ones enhance and which
diminish the effect of increasing CO2.
Natural Causes of Warming
A quite different question, but scientifically interesting, has to do with the natural factors influencing climate. This is a big topic
about which much has been written. Natural factors include continental drift and mountain-building, changes in the Earth's orbit, volcanic eruptions, and solar
variability. Different factors operate on different time scales. But on a time scale important for human experience – a scale of decades, let's say – solar
variability may be the most important.
Solar influence can manifest itself in different ways: fluctuations of solar irradiance (total energy), which has been measured in
satellites and related to the sunspot cycle; variability of the ultraviolet portion of the solar spectrum, which in turn affects the amount of ozone in the stratosphere;
and variations in the solar wind that modulate the intensity of cosmic rays (which, upon impact into the earth's atmosphere, produce cloud condensation nuclei, affecting
cloudiness and thus climate).
Scientists have been able to trace the impact of the sun on past climate using proxy data (since thermometers are relatively modern). A
conventional proxy for temperature is the ratio of the heavy isotope of oxygen, Oxygen-18, to the most common form, Oxygen-16.
A paper published in Nature in 2001 describes the Oxygen-18 data (reflecting temperature) from a stalagmite in a cave in Oman,
covering a period of over 3,000 years. It also shows corresponding Carbon-14 data, which are directly related to the intensity of cosmic rays striking the earth's
atmosphere. One sees there a remarkably detailed correlation, almost on a year-by-year basis. While such research cannot establish the detailed mechanism of climate
change, the causal connection is quite clear: Since the stalagmite temperature cannot affect the sun, it is the sun that affects climate.
Policy Consequences
If this line of reasoning is correct, human-caused increases in the CO2 level are quite insignificant to climate change. Natural causes
of climate change, for their part, cannot be controlled by man. They are unstoppable. Several policy consequences would follow from this simple fact:
- Regulation of CO2 emissions is pointless and even counterproductive, in that no matter what kind of mitigation scheme is used, such regulation is hugely
expensive.
- The development of non-fossil fuel energy sources, like ethanol and hydrogen, might be counterproductive, given that they have to be manufactured, often with the
investment of great amounts of ordinary energy. Nor do they offer much reduction in oil imports.
- Wind power and solar power become less attractive, being uneconomic and requiring huge subsidies.
- Substituting natural gas for coal in electricity generation makes less sense for the same reasons.
None of this is intended to argue against energy conservation. On the contrary, conserving energy reduces waste, saves money, and lowers
energy prices – irrespective of what one may believe about global warming.
Science vs. Hysteria
You will note that this has been a rational discussion. We asked the important question of whether there is appreciable man-made
warming today. We presented evidence that indicates there is not, thereby suggesting that attempts by governments to control greenhouse-gas emissions are pointless and
unwise. Nevertheless, we have state governors calling for CO2 emissions limits on cars; we have city mayors calling for mandatory CO2 controls; we have the Supreme
Court declaring CO2 a pollutant that may have to be regulated; we have every industrialized nation (with the exception of the U.S. and Australia) signed on to the Kyoto
Protocol; and we have ongoing international demands for even more stringent controls when Kyoto expires in 2012. What's going on here?
To begin, perhaps even some of the advocates of these anti-warming policies are not so serious about them, as seen in a feature of the
Kyoto Protocol called the Clean Development Mechanism, which allows a CO2 emitter – i.e., an energy user – to support a fanciful CO2 reduction scheme in
developing nations in exchange for the right to keep on emitting CO2 unabated. "Emission trading" among those countries that have ratified Kyoto allows for the sale of
certificates of unused emission quotas. In many cases, the initial quota was simply given away by governments to power companies and other entities, which in turn
collect a windfall fee from consumers. All of this has become a huge financial racket that could someday make the UN's "Oil for Food" scandal in Iraq seem minor by
comparison. Even more fraudulent, these schemes do not reduce total CO2 emissions – not even in theory.
It is also worth noting that tens of thousands of interested persons benefit directly from the global warming scare – at the
expense of the ordinary consumer. Environmental organizations globally, such as Greenpeace, the Sierra Club, and the Environmental Defense Fund, have raked in billions
of dollars. Multi-billion-dollar government subsidies for useless mitigation schemes are large and growing. Emission trading programs will soon reach the $100 billion a
year level, with large fees paid to brokers and those who operate the scams. In other words, many people have discovered they can benefit from climate scares and have
formed an entrenched interest. Of course, there are also many sincere believers in an impending global warming catastrophe, spurred on in their fears by the growing number of one-sided books, movies, and media coverage.
The irony is that a slightly warmer climate with more carbon dioxide is in many ways beneficial rather than damaging. Economic studies
have demonstrated that a modest warming and higher CO2 levels will increase GNP and raise standards of living, primarily by improving agriculture and forestry. It's a
well-known fact that CO2 is plant food and essential to the growth of crops and trees-and ultimately to the well-being of animals and humans.
You wouldn't know it from Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth, but there are many upsides to global warming: Northern homes could
save on heating fuel. Canadian farmers could harvest bumper crops. Greenland may become awash in cod and oil riches. Shippers could count on an Arctic shortcut between
the Atlantic and Pacific. Forests may expand.
Mongolia could become an economic superpower. This is all speculative, even a little facetious. But still, might there be a silver
lining for the frigid regions of Canada and Russia? "It's not that there won't be bad things happening in those countries," economics professor Robert O. Mendelsohn of
the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies says. "But the idea is that they will get such large gains, especially in agriculture, that they will be bigger than
the losses." Mendelsohn has looked at how gross domestic product around the world would be affected under different warming scenarios through 2100. Canada and Russia
tend to come out as clear gainers, as does much of northern Europe and Mongolia, largely because of projected increases in agricultural production.
To repeat a point made at the beginning: Climate has been changing cyclically for at least a million years and has shown huge
variations over geological time. Human beings have adapted well, and will continue to do so.
* * *
The nations of the world face many difficult problems. Many have societal problems like poverty, disease, lack of sanitation, and
shortage of clean water. There are grave security problems arising from global terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Any of these problems are vastly more
important than the imaginary problem of man-made global warming. It is a great shame that so many of our resources are being diverted from real problems to this
non-problem. Perhaps in ten or 20 years this will become apparent to everyone, particularly if the climate should stop warming (as it has for eight years now) or even
begin to cool.
We can only trust that reason will prevail in the face of an onslaught of propaganda like Al Gore's movie and despite the incessant
misinformation generated by the media. Today, the imposed costs are still modest, and mostly hidden in taxes and in charges for electricity and motor fuels. If the
scaremongers have their way, these costs will become enormous. But I believe that sound science and good sense will prevail in the face of irrational and scientifically
baseless climate fears.
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S. Fred Singer is professor emeritus of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, a distinguished research
professor at George Mason University, and president of the Science and Environmental Policy Project. He performed his undergraduate studies at Ohio State University and
earned his Ph.D. in Physics from Princeton University. He was the founding dean of the School of Environmental and Planetary Sciences at the University of Miami, the
founding director of the U.S. National Weather Satellite Service, and served for five years as vice chairman of the U.S. National Advisory Committee on Oceans and
Atmosphere. Dr. Singer has written or edited over a dozen books and mono-graphs, including, most recently, Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years.
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This article has been adapted from a lecture delivered on the Hillsdale College campus on June 30, 2007, during a seminar entitled "Economics and the Environment," sponsored by the Charles R. and Kathleen K. Hoogland Center for Teacher Excellence.
Reprinted by permission from Imprimis a publication of Hillsdale College.
International Society for Individual Liberty
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Global Warming: Man-made or Natural?
