On July 2, Mexicans will decide whether or not to vote ultra-leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (known as AMLO) as their next president.

     Rumors are abounding that Obrador's campaign is receiving financial support from Fidel Castro ally Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. To firm this up, last month Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-AZ), a moderate Republican, told Mexican legislators that he had intelligence reports confirming that Chavez was indeed supporting AMLO's Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).

     Between them, Venezuela and Mexico export about 4 million barrels of oil a day to the United States – more than 1/3 of U.S. oil imports. With both countries in the hands of leftist leaders, the opportunity to hold the U.S. hostage could be extraordinary.

     Dick Morris, a consultant to Fox and PAN warned that the US congress, now debating the U.S. immigration system, should be careful not to alienate Mexicans.

     Lopez Obrador is not inevitable. Recent polls show the candidate of Fox's National Action Party (PAN), Felipe Calderon, closing in. But much will hinge on the resolution of the immigration debate now roiling in the US Congress.

     Lopez Obrador has attacked U.S. attempts to restrict Mexican immigration and will benefit tremendously if Congress alienates the Mexican electorate.

     A recent Zogby survey found that two-thirds of Mexicans feel Americans are racist and biased against them – so a harsh shift in U.S. immigration policies could fuel a leftist victory in Mexico.

     Morris stated that Mexicans are deeply offended by the idea of a wall designed to keep them out. Building a wall on the border without also starting a guest-worker program will play badly in Mexico. A wall with a guest-worker program might go down better, particularly if the legislation didn't include punitive provisions making illegal immigration a felony.