As real estate prices in much of the U.S. continues to soar, evidence is growing that both commercial and residential real estate is greatly over-priced in many of the country's hottest markets – including New York City, Boston, Washington, D.C., Miami, and much of California.

     One clear indication that real estate is overpriced is that rents are now a fraction of mortgage payments, and are continuing to fall in terms of real dollars. For instance, Forbes reports that cash return on income-producing real estate has fallen from 9% a few years ago, to just 5% to 7% now, and is likely to go lower.

     You can clearly see why rents are falling in overheated markets like California's Silicon Valley. In the San Francisco-San José corridor, there is currently over 33 million square feet of un-rented (and in many cases never occupied) commercial space.

     Last year, just 65 thousand square feet of this enormous inventory was rented. At that rate, it will take over 507 years to rent all unoccupied commercial real estate in Silicon Valley. Since most investors can't wait over half a millennium for returns on their capital, what's more likely is that commercial real estate prices in this "hot market" will soon fall like a rock.

     Another indication that real estate is poised for a fall, that fewer and fewer people can afford today's astronomically-priced houses. For instance, in California – where ordinary 2,000 square foot, 3-bedroom homes are going for $500,000 to $2,000,000+ – less than one family in six now qualifies to repurchase their own house.

     Another indications that real estate is ready for a fall: Of 362 U.S. metropolitan areas, about 15% are experiencing a housing "boom" – a three-year, inflation adjusted price gain of 30% or more – according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. That's the highest number of boom markets ever recorded in the 30 years that they have been tracked.

     In America’s hottest real estate markets – including the big cities in New York, Florida and California – housing prices went up by 15% to 35% in the past year alone. This is clearly unsustainable.

     No matter how low interest rates are and no matter how many schemes George Bush comes up with for an "ownership society," it's clear that we are rapidly reaching the point when hardly anyone can afford to buy a new house in a hot real estate market, without putting their financial future in jeopardy.

     So what's propping up the real estate bubble, and causing housing prices to go ever-higher, even as rents fall and commercial landlords face enormous vacancy rates?

     Besides artificially low interest rates, the answer, in a word, is speculation. Up to one residence in three in California is now purchased not to live in, but for resale, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. The comparable figure may be as high as one property in two in the Las Vegas area. In downtown Miami, 80% of approximately 35,000 new condos now under construction or just completed, are owned by investors – not people who actually plan on living in them – according to MoneyNews.com.

     Call it the triumph of delusion over reality. I can't tell you how many people have told me that real estate price "can't fall, because if they did, they would be bankrupt." In other words, because they want prices to stay up, they must stay up. If you believe that, there is a nice three-bedroom fixer-upper on a dirt lot, and on the edge of an eroding cliff, in Pacifica, California, I'd like to sell you for just $2.5 million. Buy this bargain now, before the price really goes up! (This is a real example.)

     In the current frenzied real market, self-delusion is rampant. In Florida's red-hot real estate market, one Miami realtor recently told the New York Times, "South Florida is working off a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past." That's precisely what executives of dot coms told investors to justify their astronomical stock prices, just before the collapse – which triggered the destruction of over $3 trillion in stock value.

     Unfortunately, for many overextended home owners, property prices aren't immune to the laws of economics. Property prices can and do fall in America, as witnessed by the bear markets of 1974-75, 1980-82 and 1990-92.

     A personal example: One Northern California home owner I know bought his 2,000 sq. ft. house for $750,000 in 1989. In 1992, he was couldn't get $450,000 for his property, and was forced to declare bankruptcy after he lost his job.

     Millions of overextended American families with "interest only" and adjustable rate mortgages will likely find themselves in the same boat, when mortgage interest rates edge up above 7% or 8% – which is likely by the end of this year. (Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has warned that we can expect at least a 2.25% increase in interest rates in 2005, on top of the 2% increase in 2004.)

     The brutal financial reality is that a mere 2% rise in mortgage rates, can increase ARM payments by as much as 40% – an unsustainable burden for families living on the edge.

     One way or another, at best, the U.S. real estate bubble has 1 to 2 more years to run before it collapses.

     If you or your children are among those living in overpriced homes you can barely afford, NOW is the time to sell, when the market is at or near it’s peak, and before prices drop by 30% or more – and they find themselves living in a Motel 6 or in your basement.

     To minimize taxes on the profits, reinvest in a home in a small town or rural area where prices aren’t so absurd, and bank the rest.

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